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April 4, 2009

     What Could Be: With expectations looming that former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) will lose his legal challenge to the results of the 2008 Minnesota Senate election recount, attention has turned to Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN). Senate Republicans are encouraging Coleman to continue his legal challenges regardless of the results. And while it is likely that Coleman will appeal the decision of the three-judge panel to the Minnesota Supreme Court, it is uncertain whether he will proceed further with an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

     Coleman could also file a new complaint in federal court based on the arguments that absentee ballots in the state were not handled equally as required by equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore. Coleman's attorney Ben Ginsberg, who represented George W. Bush in Bush v. Gore, has been building the case for most of the trial. National Republican Senatorial Committee chair John Cornyn (R-TX) has said that a legal challenge could take years, and that he is okay with that if that is what it takes to ensure that all of the votes have been counted.

     (There would be some irony should Coleman proceed in the federal courts on an argument of equal protection. It was Coleman's legal team which argued in closing statements that the court should not follow a strict interpretation of the Minnesota election law and adopted a more lenient "common sense" approach to determine which votes were legally cast. Although not without merit, the "common sense" approach is a more subjective standard, which is more easily challenged as violating the equal protection clause. Many of the safe guards in the Minnesota's election law were written as a result of the disputed 2000 Florida Presidential contest and require multiple levels of verification in order to prevent election fraud often alleged by Republicans.)

     The question in many political observers' mind is what Pawlenty will do should Coleman continue to pursue his legal remedies past the Minnesota Supreme Court. State law says that an election certificate cannot be issued until the recount process has been completed. In a previous ruling, the state Supreme Court decided that no winner can be certified until all state-based legal proceedings play out. But it is unclear whether that ruling includes legal proceedings outside of the state. Pawlenty has not agreed to issue an election certificate should Coleman continue his fight past the Minnesota Supreme Court. U.S. Representative James L. "Jim" Oberstar (DFL-MN) suggested that "The Republican party nationally and in Minnesota is playing not just with fire, but with dynamite." If Pawlenty and the Republicans push it further, he says, "this thing is going to blow up in their face."

     Complicating things for the Senate Democrats is the precedent they set when they refused to initially seat U.S. Senator Roland W. Burris (D-IL). Democrats said then that they would not seat Burris until he received a properly signed certificate. They would be hard pressed if they try to seat Al Franken (DFL-MN) without a certificate of election signed by Governor Pawlenty.

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