|
January 30, 2008
And the Winners Are . . . :
John McCain  | U.S. Senator John S. McCain, III (R-AZ) took a giant leap forward in his efforts to capture the Republican Presidential nomination by winning the Florida primary and securing all of the convention delegates at stake. Despite coming in a close second, W. Mitt Romney (R-MA) took a major hit. The justification for his candidacy is slowly being unveiled as nothing more than a rich man's fantasy. Romney has succeeded in winning only Michigan, where he has roots, and the lightly contested Wyoming.
Nonetheless, the former Governor of Massachusetts still could pull off the ultimate victory. The campaign now moves to a national stage where money, more than personal campaign appearances, will become a greater factor. Former Arkansas Governor Michael D. "Mike" Huckabee (R-AR), who came in fourth in Florida, can be expected to pick up a spare win somewhere on February 5, 2008 when Republican voters in twenty-one states head to the polls. McCain, who outside of his home state of Arizona lacks not natural base, will not be able to complete effectively everyone. Romney, thanks to his wealth, will.
Hillary Clinton  |
On the Democratic side, former First Lady Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY) pulled off an impressive, but meaningless victory. New York's Junior Senator captured half of all the votes yesterday thanks in large part to her promise to try to restore the Sunshine State's full delegate strength at the national convention. The Democratic National Committee voted to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates after each state chose to run primaries in violation of party rules.
Clinton needed a big win after Barack H. Obama's (D-IL) victory in South Carolina on Saturday. The two frontrunners now head into the semi-national primary competing head-to-head. Democrats in twenty-two states and two territories will cast their vote on February 5. Meanwhile, former U.S. Senator John R. Edwards (D-NC) has promised to stay in the race through the convention, hoping for lightning to strike. Edwards might have a chance of winning Oklahoma where Democrats have shown a tendency of voting against the grain. But his real strategy, at this point, is to hope that party rules requiring all delegates to be awarded via proportional representation means that neither Clinton nor Obama arrive at Denver on August 25 with sufficient support for a first ballot victory.
The Florida primary also became a wake-up call for Rudolph W. "Rudy" Giuliani (R-NY). In the last a few days the former New York City Mayor revealed that he was not completely delusional. The liberal, pro-gay rights, pro-abortion right, cross-dressing, big-city mayor seeking the conservative party's nomination hinted broadly that he would be ending his presidential campaign as soon as today. Giuliani's campaign since January has been based on the presumption that while he could not win early states dominated by conservative activists, he would be able to appeal to a broader electorate. Giuliani's error was assuming that his early lead in the polls was based upon actual support. In hindsight, Giuliani's polling performance was based upon nothing more than the name-recognition advantage he had over his opponents.
Previous Commentary
|