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May 6, 2008
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Barack Obama

     Commentary - Let the GOP Nationalize the Campaign: Some political commentators are reading the results from Louisiana's 6th Congressional District as an indicator that the National Republican Congressional Committee's attempts to nationalize the special election were unsuccessful. Despite television advertisements which tried to link Donald J. "Don" Cazayoux (D-LA) to Democratic Presidential frontrunner Barack H. Obama (D-IL) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Cazayoux defeated Louis E. "Woody" Jenkins (R-LA) by a margin of 49% to 46% to become the first Democrat in thirty years to occupy the congressional seat.
     Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Christopher Van Hollen, Jr. (D-MD) said that "House Republicans tried to nationalize this election . . . [but that Cazayoux] won by focusing on the concerns of LA-06 voters."
     That is probably not completely true.
     It is just as possibly, and more feasible, that the NRCC was able to successfully nationalize the race, but that the Republican brand and the high disapproval rating of President George W. Bush (R-TX) made a nationalized race just as difficult for the GOP as a local race.
     While it is true that Jenkins, like James D. Oberweis (R-IL) who lost the special election in Illinois 14th Congressional District six weeks ago, both had high negative ratings due to past losing campaigns, the issues which matter for voters both locally and nationally favor Democrats. Voters think the war in Iraq has gone on too long. They are concerned about jobs and the economy. And most importantly they see no difference between presumptive Republican Presidential nominee John S. McCain, III (R-AZ), the Republican minority in Congress, and President Bush. So while NRCC were correct in predicting that linking Cazayoux with Obama and Pelosi would likely drive up the Congressman-elect negative ratings, it also had the unintended consequence of linking Jenkins with the even more dislike GOP brand.
     Unless and until McCain successful severs his candidacy from the shackles of the Bush Administration, Republicans will have trouble running national and local campaigns.

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